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Trucking Trends & Predictions for Q3–Q4 2025

  • Writer: Open Way Inc
    Open Way Inc
  • Aug 14
  • 6 min read

Updated: Aug 30


Modern flatbed truck on U.S. highway – representing 2025 trucking trends and freight transportation growth.

What shippers and carriers should expect in Dry Van, Reefer, Flatbed, and beyond

By Open Way Inc — August 2025


The U.S. freight market is in a late-cycle transition. Demand is uneven, imports are front-loaded by tariff timing, and costs like diesel are relatively tame versus last year. Capacity is still ample in many lanes—but pockets of tightness are emerging as produce, storms, and project freight create localized spikes. Below, we break down what’s driving the market into fall and how it likely plays out across Dry Van, Reefer, Flatbed, and Other modes (LTL & Intermodal).


The Macro Backdrop: The Signals That Matter


  • Retail imports front-loaded, then fading. Retailers pulled holiday goods forward ahead of tariff changes, pushing a July rebound in ocean imports, but the NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker expects sharp y/y drops from August through the fall (August down ~10%, September down ~20% y/y, with 2025 totals projected ~5.6% below 2024). That usually means softer truckload demand from ports into DCs later in Q3/Q4. National Retail FederationSupply Chain DiveDC VelocityReuters

  • Freight activity: mixed but expanding. The Logistics Managers’ Index cooled to 59.2 in July, still expansionary but slower growth—consistent with a market past the bottom but not roaring. Inventory costs remain elevated; transportation capacity/utilization are steady. DC VelocityMaterial Handling WholesalerCSCMP

  • Spot rates & costs. C.H. Robinson trimmed its 2025 truckload spot-rate outlook from +4.0% to +2.0% y/y, citing lower-than-expected costs (not demand). National weekly DAT Trendlines show modest, choppy moves by segment heading into mid-August. Diesel is near $3.75/gal as of Aug 11, 2025, easing cost pressure versus last year. C.H. RobinsonDATX (formerly Twitter)

  • Weather risk rises. NOAA’s updated outlook calls for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (13–18 named storms; 5–9 hurricanes; 2–5 major). Tropical activity into September/October can very quickly tighten capacity in the Gulf, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. NOAA+1National Hurricane Center

  • Equipment & capacity. Class 8 orders hit a 16-year monthly low in June, and ACT notes inventories rose earlier this year. That combination often foreshadows slower fleet growth and more disciplined capacity additions into late 2025. Trucks, Parts, ServiceMonitorDaily


Segment Outlooks


1) Dry Van (General Merchandise, E-commerce, Retail Replenishment)


What we see now:

  • July import rebound likely lifts some Trans-Pac retail flows into late August, but the Port Tracker implies a pullback Sep–Nov. The LMI points to moderate logistics expansion—not a demand surge. Supply Chain DiveDC Velocity

  • On the cost side, diesel is stable-to-soft, and major brokers have pared back 2025 rate growth expectations. X (formerly Twitter)C.H. Robinson


Q3–Q4 prediction (Van):

  • Rates: Sideways to slightly up into early September; then downside pressure returns if import-driven DC intake slows as forecast. Expect muted seasonality for retail peak unless tariffs shift again.

  • Capacity: Generally available; localized tightness around storm responses and select e-com hubs in October–November.

  • Routing notes for shippers: Lock in shorter bid cycles (quarterly mini-bids on core lanes), keep contingency carriers for Gulf/SE lanes during storm windows, and stagger appointment windows to reduce detention during DC congestion.

  • Carrier strategy: Prioritize drop-and-hook retail/CPG contracts now; build multi-stop competencies for grocers to hedge softer one-way volumes.


2) Refrigerated (Grocery, Produce, Protein, Frozen)


What we see now:

  • The summer produce surge has been uneven: Mexico volumes cooled after a volatile first half; California and the Upper Midwest carry late-season momentum; Florida citrus ended its 2024–25 season at a century-low crop, trimming outbound opportunities. Weekly USDA AMS truck rate reports show market-by-market tightness that shifts quickly. DAT+1Agricultural Marketing ServiceMy Market News


Q3–Q4 prediction (Reefer):

  • Rates: Outperform Van through September on lingering produce and back-to-school/fall promotions; soften in October as field volumes fade; Q4 holiday protein/frozen demand provides a secondary mini-peak.

  • Capacity: Tight waves around California grapes/veggies, PNW apples, Upper Midwest potatoes, then a late-Q4 pull from frozen meat and confectionery. Watch hurricane disruptions—reefer assets are first to divert for disaster relief (ice, water, grocery resupply). NOAA

  • Routing notes for shippers: Reserve temp-validated capacity early for October–December promotions; use multi-stop milk-runs to keep per-stop costs in check; leverage after-hours DC receiving to improve unload speeds.

  • Carrier strategy: Shift from produce to protein/frozen contracts by late September; add food-service distributors and club retailers; keep sanitation and temp-recorder SOPs audit-ready to capture premium freight.


3) Flatbed (Building Materials, Industrial, Energy, Project Freight)

Step deck trailer hauling construction equipment – key trend in flatbed and oversize trucking industry.

What we see now:

  • Flatbed fundamentals lag consumer-led modes. Construction and manufacturing have been choppy, but infrastructure and industrial policy (CHIPS/IRA/IIJA) keep a base of project freight alive; ACT notes vocational demand supported by those tailwinds, even as broader truck orders slump. MonitorDailyTrucks, Parts, Service


Q3–Q4 prediction (Flatbed):

  • Rates: Range-bound with regional spikes (Gulf Coast energy, Midwest steel/heavy equipment, Sun Belt construction). If storms hit Gulf refineries or petrochem, expect urgent lift in heavy-haul and building-material lanes for repairs. NOAA

  • Capacity: Ample overall, but specialized gear (RGN, multi-axle, tarps) tightens quickly when projects bunch up.

  • Routing notes for shippers: Book specialized equipment 2–4 weeks ahead; pre-clear site access/permits to avoid accessorials; share load diagrams early.

  • Carrier strategy: Target infrastructure vendors, OEM over-dimensional, and energy turnarounds; maintain permit-ready status and escort relationships; bundle backhauls with steel/coils or lumber to protect yields.


4) Other Modes to Watch


LTL:

  • With inventories still elevated and demand uneven, LTL carriers remain disciplined on pricing and density. Expect steady service and selective GRIs into Q4, with regional carriers offering value on short-haul replenishment. (Macro: LMI expansion but slower.) DC Velocity

Intermodal:

  • Rail/intermodal volumes are up modestly y/y through mid-summer, but the port-driven pullback points to softer domestic repositioning later in Q3/Q4. Intermodal stays a cost lever on long hauls if truckload tightens around storms. Association of American Railroads


Pricing & Procurement: What to Do Now


  1. Favor flexible terms. With several “unknowns” (tariff policy noise, storm paths), use index-linked or short-cycle bids on volatile lanes, keep annual contracts for steady core. C.H. Robinson

  2. Stage capacity in storm-sensitive regions. Pre-negotiate disaster-response rates/SOPs for Gulf/SE to avoid scramble premiums when a storm forms. National Hurricane Center

  3. Blend modes to hedge. Pair intermodal for baseline volume with truckload surge options. When reefer tightens, trial insulated dry vans + pallets blankets for near-cold (where compliant). Association of American Railroads

  4. Watch fuel clauses. With diesel near $3.75/gal (Aug 11), audit FSC tables; protect against upside shocks but don’t overpay while prices are subdued. X (formerly Twitter)

  5. Plan for project spikes. For flatbed, book specialized moves early; share load drawings and site constraints to prevent day-of delays.


Lane-Level Expectations (Aug–Dec 2025)


  • Port → Inland DC (Van): Firm through late August, then softening Sep–Nov as TEUs drop y/y. Expect normal Black Friday push but smaller than 2024. National Retail Federation

  • SoCal/PNW → Midwest (Reefer/Van): Tighter through September on late produce and retail resets; eases in Oct. DAT

  • Gulf/Southeast (All): Weather-driven volatility; storm weeks can swing load-to-truck ratios dramatically and reroute capacity nationally. NOAA

  • Midwest/Ohio Valley (Flatbed): Project-driven pockets (steel, machinery); permits & escorts are the gating factor, not tractors. MonitorDaily


Quick Scorecard (What’s Likely from Now to Year-End)


  • Van: Sideways → slightly softer into fall; spot > contract in pockets only.

  • Reefer: Best relative performance; mini-peak again in Q4 for frozen/protein.

  • Flatbed: Range-bound with regional spikes (energy, infrastructure, storm rebuilds).

  • LTL: Stable service; disciplined pricing.

  • Intermodal: Useful cost hedge; demand cools with lower TEUs.


How Open Way Inc Can Help


At Open Way Inc, we run OTR across all 48 states with strength in flatbed and general truckload. For shippers:


  • Need predictable reefer coverage for fall promotions? We can stage equipment near key growing/packing regions and major DC hubs.

  • Planning project or heavy moves? We’ll engineer routes, secure permits, and line up the right gear—no overkill equipment, just what’s required.

  • Want storm-resilient capacity? We’ll build an escalation plan with you before the first cone appears on NOAA maps.


Sources



Final Take

Expect no single “big peak” this fall. Instead, prepare for waves—reefer-led tightness, weather-driven surges, and regional flatbed pops—against a generally balanced national market. The winners on both sides (shipper and carrier) will be the ones who stay nimble: short bid cycles where it makes sense, smart mode-mixing, and pre-planned storm playbooks.


🚛 Ready to Move Your Freight?


If you’re a shipper or freight broker looking for a reliable, safety-focused flatbed, step deck, or oversize carrier, partner with Open Way Inc. We deliver your freight on time, every time — with the professionalism and care your business deserves.👉 Request a Quote Today and experience the Open Way difference.


👷 CDL Drivers – Join the Best Flatbed Team

If you’re a CDL Class A driver searching for a step deck or flatbed job with a trusted company, Open Way Inc is hiring! With a zero-accident safety record, steady freight, top pay, and driver-first amenities, we are the carrier drivers trust.👉 Apply Now and start your career with Open Way Inc.


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